Thursday, 19 January 2012

Complete Oscar Nomination Predictions Breakdown (Part 1)

With the nominations being released on Tuesday, only 6 days away, I thought I'd update my predictions one last time, and give a full break down! So here we go!

Best Picture
The only real locks we really have right now in this category are 'The Artist' and 'The Descendants'. Pretty much everything else is up for grabs. I'm going to wager that Midnight in Paris gets in (due to it getting nominated by all 4 guild awards + the original screenplay shoe-in), Moneyball (acting + adapted screenplay lock), Hugo (directing + visual/tech locks) and The Help (acting locks/wins), which leaves us with 6 pictures. Should the field extend wider (which it very well could), it'll be War Horse next in, followed by The Tree of Life, and The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo.

Nominated: The Artist, The Descendants, Midnight in Paris, Moneyball, Hugo, The Help
Close/Potential: War Horse, The Tree of Life, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Almost, but not quite: The Ides of March, Drive, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Bridesmaids

Best Lead Actor 
The current frontrunner right now would be George Clooney. Having scooped up both the Critics Choice Award and the Golden Globe, Clooney is definitely a lock. As is Jean Dujardin, who won the Globe for Comedy/Musical, and have a very strong performance in the Artist. Next, we have Brad Pitt, who was solid in Moneyball and is looking good to get in, having been nominated all places. All 3 are locks there, but the other 2 spots are up for grabs. We have Leonardo DiCaprio (J. Edger), Michael Fassbender (Shame) and Gary Oldman (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy). It's a tough toss up, but it'll probably go to DiCap, and Fassbender. Both have been nominated in several different places, with Oldman having been snubbed a lot.

Nominated: George Clooney, Jean Dujardin, Brad Pitt, Leonardo DiCaprio, Michael Fassbender
Close, but not quite: Gary Oldman, Ryan Gosling, Demain Bichir

Best Lead Actress
Right now, Viola Davis and Meryl Streep are completely locked in, if not battling it out for the win already. Michelle Williams as her portrayal as Marilyn Monroe is a close third, leaving, again, the 4th and 5th spots quite open. Both Tilda Swinton and Glen Close are looking good, but the likes of Elizabeth Olsen, Felicity Jones and Rooney Mara follow quite close behind. I'm going to go with the seasoned veterans other the newcomers on this one, and say Swinton and Close are in.

Nominated: Viola Davis, Meryl Streep, Michelle Williams, Tilda Swinton, Glen Close
Close, but Not Quite: Elizabeth Olsen, Rooney Mara, Felicity Jones

Best Supporting Actor
Personally, I think this is the weakest of any category this year. The last few years saw the likes of Christian Bale, Christoph Waltz, Heath Ledger and Javier Bardem, all who gave powerhouse performances. This year, not so much. We have Christopher Plummer who is the only front-runner (or even a runner at all), and is already going to win. This category is pretty up in the air, and we could see anyone nominated on Tuesday. Jonah Hill, who's been getting some attention will likely be nominated, along with Kenneth Branagh, Albert Brooks and Nick Nolte. But I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't see them called. The only one I"m sure about is Christopher Plummer, right now.

Nominated: Christopher Plummer
Other People Who Have Slight Potential: Jonah Hill, Kenneth Branagh, Albert Brooks, Nick Nolte

Best Supporting Actress
Have I mentioned that though this year was overall pretty weak for films, it was a really strong year for women. The Help and Bridesmaids were very prominent movies this year, and were helmed by females. And there's the Iron Lady, and My Week With Marilyn. It's the year of the woman, in film. That being said, the supporting actress slots are filled and overflowing. The frontrunner right now is Octavia Spencer, for her role in the Help. She's been picking up awards all over the places, and very deservedly so. Coming up behind her, costar Jessica Chastain. She's had a brilliant year, and will most likely be nominated for her role in the Help. Then there's Berenice Bejo, who was charming in the Artist, Shailene Woodley who was potty-mouthed and snarky in the Descendants, Janet McTeer in Albert Nobbs, Melissa McCarthy's dirty attitude in Bridesmaids, Carey Mulligan in Shame, and Jessica Chastain's other 5 performances this year. This is a tough one, ladies and gentleman.

Nominated: Octavia Spencer, Jessica Chastain, Berenice Bejo, Shailene Woodley Janet McTeer
Close, but Not Quite: Melissa McCarthy, Jessica Chastain's other roles, Carey Mulligan

Best Director
For Best Director, we seem to have about 4 locks. We have Michel Hazanavicius, who helmed the Artist, the front-runner for Best Picture. We have Alexander Payne, the man behind the Descendants, the picture most likely to be a contender against the Artist. We have Woody Allen, who wrote and directed Midnight in Paris, the seasoned veteran. And a second veteran, being Martin Scorsese, who won the Golden Globe for directing. But the fifth spot has several people vying for attention. We have Steven Spielburg for War Horse (Spielburg is much-loved, but his movie received mediocre reviews), David Fincher for The Girl with The Dragon Tattoo (which is getting some awards attention, though not a lot), Terrence Malik who's masterpiece was the Tree of Life, and Bennett Miller, the man behind Moneyball. And Tate Taylor, though a long shot, for directing the fan-favourite, the Help. It's a tough call, but I'm going to put my money on Fincher for this one, who received a DGA nomination.

Nominated: Michel Hazanavicius, Alexander Payne, Woody Allen, Martin Scorsese, David Fincher
Close, but Not Quite: Steven Spielburg, Terrence Malik, Bennett Miller and Tate Taylor

Best Adapted Screenplay
This year we've seen several films being adapted from novels. So far, locks would be Moneyball and The Descendants. But who after that? We have, again, many possibilities. We have War Horse, The Help, The Ides of March, Hugo, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo and Drive. This is tough competition if you ask me. While Moneyball and The Descendants are "for sures", I'm going to go with The Help, Hugo and The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo up next. The Ides of March and Drive are not getting as much attention as they were previously, War Horse isn't high enough reviewed and could be snubbed, while Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy is getting hardly any attention at all.

Nominated: Moneyball, The Descendants, The Help, Hugo and The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Close, but not quite: The Ides of March, Drive, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, War Horse

Best Original Screenplay
While this category is still strong, it's not quite as competitive as Adapted Screenplay is. For locks, we have Woody Allen's Midnight in Paris, which received the award at both the Critics Choice and Golden Globe awards. Also, The Artist is in contention, being a front-runner for Best Picture. After that, we have several choices, mostly comedies. We have 50/50, Young Adult, Bridesmaids and Win Win. All of these have all received nominations several places, so here are my predictions:

Nominated: Midnight in Paris, The Artist, 50/50, Win Win, Young Adult
Close, but not quite: Bridesmaids, Beginners, The Tree of Life

Best Animated Feature
Having seen very few Animated films this year, these predictions are all based on other's predictions. Right now, Rango has won a few awards, and so has The Adventures of Tin-Tin. Both are locked. What else? Well, people have been saying films like Arthur Christmas, Chico and Rita, Winnie the Pooh, Kung-Fu Panda 2, Puss in Boots, etc. So I'm just going to guess on this one.

Nominated: Rango, Tin-Tin, Arthur Christmas, Chico & Rita, Puss in Boots
Close, but not Quite: Kung-Fu Panda 2, Winnie the Pooh

Part 2 (Art and Technical Predictions) coming up soon!

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