Thursday, 19 February 2015

2015 Oscar Predictions

A lot of these predictions were actually really difficult to make. Boyhood vs Birdman? Keaton vs Redmayne? Inarritu or Linklater? Can Whiplash win everything except Best Picture? Will American Sniper win things it doesn't deserve? Big questions, a lot of them I'm still not 100% sure I made the correct choice, but we'll see in a few days time. (Note: I didn't bother with the shorts because I have no clue, really)

I've laid out my Will Win and Should Win (along with a few "could win"). It was a lot of tough picks and my heart just simply wishes the Grand Budapest Hotel and Whiplash could win everything. Take a look below and feel free to share your own predictions!

American Sniper
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
The Theory of Everything

Will Win: Birdman
Could Win: Boyhood
Should Win: Whiplash

I originally had Boyhood winning here. I even posted it in my official predictions. But I've decided on a last minute change to put Birdman as the Best Picture winner. I had my doubts about Birdman prevailing but with wins at PGA, SAG, DGA and now at the Indie Spirits (where Boyhood was expected to win, but did not) I've had a last minute change of mind. I may be kicking myself in 24 hours but I'm now more certain that Birdman will win rather than Boyhood. Kind of a shame really as I personally prefered Boyhood, but I feel Birdman is quite an original film to win. Although, I'm still not even like 80% sure this is going to happen, but I'm going to stick with it.

Alejandro González Iñárritu (Birdman)
Richard Linklater (Boyhood)
Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game)
Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher)

Will Win: Richard Linklater (Boyhood)
Could Win: Alejandro González Iñárritu (Birdman)
Should Win: Richard Linklater (Boyhood)

I feel like whichever way Best Picture ends up swinging, that Linklater is the most deserving director here. The 12 year "gimmick" is handled so well under his direction. This was Linklater's brain child and it shows. Long and hard work deserves an Oscar. I think this may be the third year in a row for a Picture/Director split, but I do see why.  

Steve Carell (Foxcatcher)
Bradley Cooper (American Sniper)
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game)
Michael Keaton (Birdman)
Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)

Will Win: Michael Keaon (Birdman)
Could Win: Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)
Should Win: Michael Keaton or Eddie Redmayne

I know Eddie Redmayne is the favourite to win, but to me, he just seems too young and new and Michael Keaton should be taking this one. He's maybe playing a version of himself and it's a career high for him after a long career. I can't really see it going unrewarded in the end. 

Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night)
Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything)
Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)
Reese Witherspoon (Wild)

Will Win: Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
Could Win: I don't think anyone it touching Julianne Moore
Should Win: Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)

Seriously, no one is touching Julianne Moore. Like, I don't even have any idea who people would consider 2nd place. And the Academy clearly didn't care for Gone Girl, with Rosamund Pike being the sole nomination. As awesome as it would be to happen, it won't. Julianne is walking away with this, easy. 

Robert Duvall (The Judge)
Ethan Hawke (Boyhood)
Edward Norton (Birdman)
Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)
J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)

Will Win: JK Simmons (Whiplash)
Could Win: I think Edward Norton has the closest shot, but it's not happening. 
Should Win: JK Simmons (Whiplash)

Seriously, JK Simmons can't and shouldn't be beat in this category. He is acting category that pretty much everyone agrees that the most deserving person is actually winning everything. It's that one category that pretty much everyone agrees is the right choice. 

Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
Laura Dern (Wild)
Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game)
Emma Stone (Birdman)
Meryl Streep (Into the Woods)

Will Win: Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
Could Win: No one else seems to be a real competitor. 
Should Win: Patricia Arquette (Boyhood) or Emma Stone (Birdman)

Again, Patricia Arquette has been walking with everything and I also don't know who is a really runner-up to her. 

Jason Dean Hall (American Sniper)
Graham Moore (The Imitation Game)
Paul Thomas Anderson (Inherent Vice)
Anthony McCarten (The Theory of Everything)
Damien Chazelle (Whiplash)

Will Win: Graham Moore (The Imitation Game)
Could Win: Damien Chazelle (Whiplash)
Should Win: Damien Chazelle (Whiplash)

The Imitation Game won the WGA last weekend but it hasn't gone up against Damien Chazelle's Whiplash yet (this is the only time it's competing as Adapted instead of Original). So I like to think that Whiplash has a legitimate chance. But I don't think Harvey's big film will walk away empty handed this year. 

Alejandro González Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris and Armando Bo (Birdman)
Richard Linklater (Boyhood)
E. Max Frye and Dan Futterman (Foxcatcher)
Wes Anderson, Hugo Guinness (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
Dan Gilroy (Nightcrawler)

Will Win: Wes Anderson, Hugo Guinness (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
Could Win: Alejandro González Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris and Armando Bo (Birdman)
Should Win: Wes Anderson, Hugo Guinness (The Grand Budapest Hotel)

Of all the awards Wes Anderson has pretty much always been deserving of, Original Screenplay is certainly one of them. One of the most creative guys and definitely my favourite filmmaker, I'm excited that this is most likely going to win. Although, tough competition comes from Birdman and I feel like if things swing in Birdman's favour here, we're probably looking at a Best Picture and possibly Director win as well. 

Big Hero 6
The BoxTrolls
How to Train Your Dragon 2
Song of the Sea
The Tale of the Princess Kaguya

Will Win: How To Train Your Dragon 2
Could Win: The Tale of the Princess Kaguya
Should Win: How To Train Your Dragon 2

I know How to Train Your Dragon 2 is the big frontrunner but I wonder if it will actually win in the end. The Oscars often go with some unconventional picks here and I could see The Tale of the Princess Kaguya being it, but I'm going to stick with HTTYD2 because it's awesome and deserves to win (especially since the first one didn't)

Finding Vivian Maier
Last Days in Vietnam
The Salt of the Earth

Will Win: CitizenFour

Joel Cox and Gary D. Roach (American Sniper)
Sandra Adair (Boyhood)
Barney Pilling (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
William Goldenberg (The Imitation Game)
Tom Cross (Whiplash)

Will Win: Tom Cross (Whiplash)
Could Win: Sandra Adair (Boyhood)
Should Win: Tom Cross (Whiplash)

I feel like this is one of my riskier picks of the night since Boyhood is mostly seen as the frontrunner (And rightly so, it is a lot of footage to go through and everything feels really seamless). But the first time I ever noticed editing (in a good way) was Whiplash. So much of the energy and tension that Whiplash has is from the editing. The quick and on-time cuts are spectacular (and that ending, my goodness!). Fingers crossed here!

Emmanuel Lubezki (Birdman)
Robert D. Yeoman (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
Ryszard Lenczewski and Lukasz Zal (Ida)
Dick Pope (Mr. Turner)
Roger Deakins (Unbroken)

Will Win: Emmanuel Lubezki (Birdman)
Could Win: Robert D. Yeoman (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
Should Win: Emmanuel Lubezki (Birdman)

Honestly, I think Lubezki is walking away easy again, second year in a row. The one-take effect of Birdman is one of the most interesting things about the film and Lubezki did it flawlessly. 

Alexandre Desplat (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
Alexandre Desplat (The Imitation Game)
Hans Zimmer (Interstellar)
Johann Johannsson (The Theory of Everything)
Gary Yershon (Mr. Turner)

Will Win: Alexandre Desplat (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
Could Win: Johann Johannsson (The Theory of Everything)
Should Win: Pretty much any of these would be fantastic choices.

Honestly, I'd be so happy with any of these winning. The Grand Budapest Hotel is one of my favourite scores of the year and one of my all-time favourites of Desplat's. It's unconventional and fits the film like a glove. But everyone here is a pretty worthy nominee (note: I haven't listed to Mr Turner's score at all, so that I don't actually know if it was worthy). Hans Zimmer has only won for The Lion King and I'd love to see him win a 2nd Oscar but I think the Academy's obvious liking for GBH will get Desplat his first and overdue win. 

"Lost Stars" from Begin Again
"I'm Not Gonna Miss You" from Glen Campbell: I'll Be Me
"Everything is Awesome" from The Lego Movie
"Glory" from Selma
"Grateful" from Beyond the Lights

Will Win: "Glory" from Selma
Could Win: "Everything is Awesome" from The Lego Movie
Should Win: I really don't care :P 

As much as I'd love to see Everything is Awesome winning here, I think Selma has this one in the bag.

American Sniper

Will Win: Whiplash
Could Win: American Sniper
Should Win: Whiplash

I honestly don't know much about Sound Mixing, but Whiplash is my favourite and the more it wins, the better. Again, I'm pretty unsure about this, but I know this has gone to musical films in the past, so that's what I'll go with.

American Sniper
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies

Will Win: American Sniper
Could Win: Birdman
Should Win: ??

Again, I don't know much about Sound Editing, but I feel like American Sniper will take this one as well.

Captain America: The winter Soldier
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Guardians of the Galaxy
X-Men: Days of Future Past

Will Win: Interstellar
Could Win: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Should Win: Interstellar

I'm kind of split whether this will go to Interstellar of Dawn of the Planet of the Apes. Either one is a worthy winner but I though Interstellar was really good and personally preferred the effects in it so would be happy to see it win.

Milena Canonero (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
Mark Bridges (Inherent Vice)
Colleen Atwood (Into the Woods)
Anna B. Sheppard (Maleficent)
Jacqueline Durran (Mr. Turner)

Will Win: Milena Canonero (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
Could Win: Colleen Atwood (Into the Woods)?
Should Win: Milena Canonero (The Grand Budapest Hotel)

The biggest competition for GBH is Into the Woods and Maleficent. But I think GBH should walk away with this. 

The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Into the Woods
Mr. Turner

Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could Win: Into the Woods
Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

This looks like an easy win for GBH. Another thing Wes Anderson is great at is Production Design and it's crazy that none of his films have won this 

The Grand Budapest Hotel
Guardians of the Galaxy

Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could Win: Foxcatcher
Should Win: Either of the Will/Could would be fine by me

Wild Tales

Will Win: Ida

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