Golden Globe Film Predictions

We're already here! The first awards show of the season. And as usual, the Globes are always a really tricky one to predict. They often go their own way in terms of winners (The Revenant over Spotlight, The Social Network over the King's Speech, etc). And this year seems to be especially murky. We don't have clear frontrunners in very many categories at all. The Shape of Water leads nominations, so will it win a bunch of those? Or will Three Billboards or the Post snug some? It's a tough one, but here are my predictions.

Best Picture (Drama)
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Call Me By Your Name
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
The Post

Will Win: The Shape of Water
Could Win: The Post or Three Billboards
Should Win: Dunkirk/3 Billboards

The Shape of Water leads nominations and it seems like the type of film the HFPA would favour. However, I would still watch out for almost any of these films. But especially the Post and Three Billboards. Both have quite timely themes so if the HFPA wanted to go with some sort of narrative, they could with either of those 2.

Best Actor (Drama)
Timothee Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name)
Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
Tom Hanks (The Post)
Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel Esq.)
Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)

Will Win: Gary Oldman
Could Win: Timothee Chalamet
Should Win: ?

I haven't seen any of these movies yet so don't have an opinion on who should win. Gary Oldman seems the likely winner here, playing a beloved historial figure. However, we thought this about Natalie Portman last year and look how that turned out. I'd watch closest for Timothee Chalamet.

Best Actress (Drama)
Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)
Meryl Streep (The Post)
Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Jessica Chastain (Molly's Game)
Michelle Williams (All The Money In The World)

Will Win: Sally Hawkins
Could Win: Frances McDormand
Should Win: ?

So far, I've only see Molly's Game and while I'd be happy if Chastain won, it isn't going to happen. Frances McDormand is probably considered the frontrunner here, but I'm going with Hawkins. Given the amount of nominations, I think the HFPA will really love the Shape of Water.

Best Picture (Comedy/Musical)
Get Out
Lady Bird
I, Tonya
The Disaster Artist
The Greatest Showman

Will Win: Lady Bird
Could Win: Get Out
Should Win: Lady Bird

I loved Get Out, Lady Bird and The Disaster Artist (all in my top 5 films this year so far) but I think this one should be Lady Birds. Directed by a female, written by a female and starring women, I think that narrative alone wins the category. However, this film is GOOD so it's not an unfair win. However, look out for Get Out!

Best Actor (Comedy/Musical)
Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)
James Franco (the Disaster Artist)
Steve Carell (Battle of the Sexes)
Ansel Elgort (Baby Driver)
Hugh Jackman (The Greatest Showman)

Will Win: James Franco
Could Win: Daniel Kaluuya
Should Win: James Franco

Honesty, Daniel Kaluuya (great as he was) feels like a distant second. This should (deservedly) be Francos, no problem.

Best Actress (Comedy Musical)
Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)
Margot Robbie (I, Tonya)
Judi Dench (Victoria & Abdul)
Emma Stone (Battle of the Sexes)
Helen Mirren (The Leisure Seekers)

Will Win: Saoirse Ronan
Could Win: Margot Robbie
Should Win: Saoirse Ronan

I mean, it'd be crazy if Saoirse didn't win, but I could see Margot Robbie winning here. Her film doesn't seem like the Academy's cup of tea, but I could see it going over well here.

Best Supporting Actor
Christopher Plummer (All The Money In The World)
Armie Hammer (Call Me By Your Name)
Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water)
Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)

Will Win: Sam Rockwell
Could Win: Christopher Plummer or Willem Dafoe
Should Win: ?

Word on the street is the HFPA loooves Three Billboards. I was split on predicting Frances McDormand for the Best Actress win but I think this is the easiest way to reward a film they love. However, watch for Willem Dafoe (Oscar frontrunner) or Christopher Plummer (surprise nominee)

Best Supporting Actress
Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
Mary J. Blige (Mudbound)
Hong Chau (Downsizing)
Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)

Will Win: Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
Could Win: Laurie Metcalf
Should Win: Janney or Metcalf

I'm predicting Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress will be split between Lady Bird and I, Tonya. So this could very well be Margot Robbie and Laurie Metcalf winning, but I fee it'll be Saoirse Ronan and Allison Janney. Athough any combination of these ladies would be fantastic wins.

Best Director
Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape of Water)
Steven Spielberg (The Post)
Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Ridley Scott (All the Money In The World)

Will Win: Guillermo Del Toro
Could Win: Christopher Nolan
Should Win: Christopher Nolan

Since Greta Gerwig and Jordan Peele were snubbed, I really, really want Chris Nolan to win here. However, I continue to predict the HFPA going head over heels for the Shape of Water and also awarding it Best Director. However, there have been a lot of split winners in the past years so we'll see!

Best Screenplay
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Molly's Game
The Post
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Will Win: Lady Bird
Could Win: The Shape of Water
Should Win: Lady Bird

Please, PLEASE let Greta Gerwig win a Globe! (And then an Oscar!)

Best Animated Feature
Coco
Loving Vincent
The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Ferdinand

Will Win: Coco
Could Win: Loving Vincent?
Should Win: ?

I was kicking myself the morning nominations came out because I had removed Boss Baby from the predictions the night before. Oh well. This should be Coco's, no problem.

Best Foreign Film
First They Killed My Father
The Square
In the Fade
A Fantastic Woman
Loveless

Will Win: First they Killed My Father
Could Win: The Square

Sadly, I haven't seen any of these but I think they'll award this to Angie's film.

Best Original Score
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Phantom Thread
The Post
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Will Win: Dunkirk
Could Win: The Shape of Water
Should Win: Dunkirk

Hans Zimmer vs. Alexandre Desplat vs John Williams vs Johnny Greenwood vs Carter Burwell. But seriously, Zimmer vs Desplat vs Williams. All master composers. I'm leaning towards Dunkirk for the win but could easily see Desplat taking it for The Shape of Water

Best Original Song
Remember Me (Coco)
This is Me (The Greatest Showman)
Mighty River (Mudbound)
Home (Ferdinand)
The Star (The Star)

Will Win: Remember Me (Coco)
Could Win: This Is Me (The Greatest Showman)

Still not over the egregious snub of Sufjan Stevens for his song Mystery of Love from Call Me By Your Name. Stevens is an all-time favourite artist of mine and I'm still salty he was snubbed here. But really, Coco will probably win but there have been some wild winners over the years.