Oscar Nomination Predictions

That time of year is officially here. Oscar nominations are out in less than 36 hours. So far it's been a somewhat interesting season, but mostly (for my anyway) it's been a pretty uncertain one past La La Land. La La Land looks to be scoring tons and tons of nominations, including Best Picture. Will the Academy continue the musical loving? How much will they love films like Moonlight, Nocturnal Animals or Hidden Figures? Will Silence finally make an awards show appearance? Will the Best Director category really all be 1st time nominees? Will #oscarssowhite continue for a 3rd year? It's been a very interesting year since this year has mainly been films by relative newcomers or people finally getting their due. To remind you, last year my accuracy rate was 78%, but I didn't predict in the shorts categories. I'm expecting lots of upsets and surprises like usual, so we'll see how well this goes! Good luck to everyone else and hopefully your favourites (and the best) are nominated!

Best Picture
La La Land
Moonlight
Manchester By The Sea
Lion
Arrival
Hidden Figures
Hell or High Water
Hacksaw Ridge

In order of likelihood, however, past Lion, I'm so unsure. There don't seem to be many movies that feel like locks this year. I could see Arrival snubbed almost across the board (minus technicals), I could see Hell or High Water missing out, Fences or Nocturnal Animals definitely have chances here. However, I feel safest with these 8 and don't dare predict more!

Best Director
Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester By The Sea)
Denis Villeneuve (Arrival)
Garth Davis (Lion)

I've been fretting over this fifth slot for a few weeks now. Chazelle, Jenkins, Lonergan and Villeneuve seem likely but I've had a hard time making a final prediction for the 5th place. This category for the past few years has seem several surprise nominees so I'm going with Garth Davis. He surprised with a DGA nod for his first feature film so I feel like that is pretty significant (remember Morten Tyldum a few years ago?) It's not very often that DGA and Oscars go 5 for 5 with each other, but I just don't really know who else gets that fifth slot. Mel Gibson, Tom Ford, Denzel Washington or David Mackenzie (who I swapped out at the last minute) could all turn up here, but that DGA nod seems pretty key.

Best Actor
Casey Affleck (Manchester By The Sea)
Ryan Gosling (La La Land)
Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)
Denzel Washington (Fences)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Nocturnal Animals)

This is my big upset pick. Yes, I'm predicting Jake Gyllenhaal for Nocturnal Animals. Both Globes and BAFTA have loved this film more than we expected and BAFTA nominated Jake here so I'm wondering if this is telling (like it was for Gary Oldman in 2012 and Javier Bardem in 2011). Viggo Mortensen always seemed like a bit of a random pick to me anyway so we'll see. But you always have to have at least one risky pick, right?

Best Actress
Emma Stone (La La Land)
Natalie Portman (Jackie)
Isabelle Huppert (Elle)
Amy Adams (Arrival)
Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)

Going with a pretty safe line-up here. However I'm really hoping that Taraji P. Henson is able to upset Meryl Streep here. Henson was wonderful in Hidden Figures and she deserves Oscar Nomination #2.

Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)
Dev Patel (Lion)
Aaron Taylor-Johnson (Nocturnal Animals)
Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins)

I don't see Lucas Hedges getting in here and will be surprised if he does. He's very young and the Academy never seems to like young male performances. Also, Aaron Taylor-Johnson has the odds stacked his way for a nomination after his Golden Globe win. Will ATJ actually become an Oscar nominee? Really?

Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis (Fences)
Michelle Williams (Manchester By The Sea)
Nicole Kidman (Lion)
Naomi Harris (Moonlight)
Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures)

This category seems the safest bet but the Academy always loves to throw curveballs. However, these ladies have been pretty widespread nominated altogether all season so I don't see it stopping.

Best Original Screenplay
La La Land
Manchester By The Sea
The Lobster
Hell or High Water
Captain Fantastic

I feel like this category exists for movie like The Lobster. While I wasn't crazy about that movie, it's screenplay was excellent and deserves a nod here. I feel like this lineup is safe, minus Captain Fantastic. Watch out for Zootopia or 20th Century Women

Best Adapted Screenplay
Moonlight
Arrival
Hidden Figures
Lion
Nocturnal Animals

I was originally going to predict Deadpool here but realized I originally was only predicting Hidden Figures would be up for Picture, Supporting Actress and Song and didn't think it would only come away with 3 nominations (and it was originally my 6th choice here anyway). Could see Deadpool or Fences upsetting here but I'm hoping the Academy is a little more creative than nominating the copy-and-paste job that was Fences screenplay.

Best Cinematography
La La Land
Moonlight
Silence
Arrival
Lion

I just really want Silence to get in here, if nowhere else. Also, Bradford Young more than deserves a nomination for Arrival. It's crazy to me that it would make him the first Black person to be nominated here. How is that possible??

Best Costume Design
Jackie
La La Land
Silence
The Handmaiden
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

I don't know a lot about the Handmaiden, but I have a weird feeling it could get in here. Another slightly risky pick but the costumes do look beautiful.

Best Film Editing
La La Land
Moonlight
Manchester By The Sea
Hacksaw Ridge
Arrival

Again, I just really want Arrival to get in here. This is one of my biggest Oscar day wishes.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Florence Foster Jenkins
Deadpool
A Man Called Ove

Best Production Design
La La Land
Jackie
Silence
Hail, Caesar!
Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them

Best Original Score
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Florence Foster Jenkins
The BFG

Best Original Song
"City of Stars" (La La Land)
"How Far I'll Go" (Moana)
"Audition (The Fools Who Dream)" (La La Land)
"Drive It Like You Stole It" (Sing Street)
"Runnin'" (Hidden Figures)

Best Sound Editing
Hacksaw Ridge
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Arrival
The Jungle Book
Sully

Best Sound Mixing
La La Land
Rogue One; A Star Wars Story
Hacksaw Ridge
Arrival
The Jungle Book

Best Visual Effects
The Jungle Book
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Doctor Strange
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them

Best Animated Feature
Zootopia
Moana
Kubo and the Two Strings
The Red Turtle
My Life as a Zucchini

Best Documentary
OJ: Made In America
I Am Not Your Negro
The 13th
Cameraperson
Gleason

Best Foreign Film
Toni Erdmann
The Salesman
Land of Mine
A Man Called Ove
Tanna

Best Animated Short
Piper
The Head Vanishes
Inner Workings
Pearl
Blind Vaysha

Best Documentary Short
Joe's Violin
The White Helmets
The Mute's House
Extremis
4.1 Miles

Best Live Action Short
Nocturne in Black
The Way of Tea
Bon Voyage
Graffiti
The Rifle, The Jackal, The Wolf and the Boy