So apparently the only time I really use this blog any more is to share my predictions now. And up next we have Oscar predictions! Can you believe we're at that time already? This year has been an oddity with the first superhero best picture nominee (Black Panther), a controversial Freddie Mercury biopic directed by an accused sexual predator that didn't even get overly good reviews (Bohemian Rhapsody), a 4th remake of a classic film starring an Oscar-nominated performance from Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born), and Spike Lee's first ever best Director and best Picture nominations. And that doesn't even mention the Kevin Hart-Oscar Host kerfuffle, the anti-Muslim tweets from one of the Green Book writers, the walking back of both the Best Popular Film Category and also the handing out of 4 technical awards during commercial break, by the Academy. Honestly, it's been a weird year and I've been a bit less invested then some. To be honest, there weren't a lot of films I loved so it's been interesting. But regardless, here are my takes on all the Oscar categories on who will win, who could win and who should.
Best Picture
Will Win: Roma
Could Win: Green Book
Should Win: BlacKkKlansman
This one is incredibly tough. Roma is a Spanish-language, black and white Netflix film directed by legendary Alfonso Cuaron. And Green Book is a nice film about racism directed by the guy who also directed Shallow Hal and Dumb and Dumber. So that's something. And honestly, it could go either way. Green Book is the more "popular" win. Bigger box office, won TIFF people's choice award and is a crowd pleaser. And Roma is the "prestigious" win. I think I'm leaning towards Roma. It'd be a neat message to send to have the first Foreign Language film (one set in Mexico nonetheless) to win Best Picture. Personally, my pick would be BlacKkKlansman but that won't happen. However, I wouldn't count out Bohemian Rhapsody (seriously, look at that shocking Globe win), or even Black Panther!
Best Director
Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
Could Win: Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)
Should Win: Cuaron or Lee
Honestly, this is Cuaron's for the taking. Nominated for a total of 4 Oscars just for himself, Cuaron produced, wrote, directed, edited and played cinematographer for Roma. The man basically made this movie himself. And not only that but it's good. I don't think anyone really stands a chance here. While it would've been awesome to have Spike Lee win, I don't think there's really any chance.
Best Actress
Will Win: Glenn Close (The Wife)
Could Win: Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
Should Win: Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
While there was a point in time that Lady Gaga seemed to be the frontrunner, Glenn Close seems to have snatched it. Watch out for Olivia Colman (who won BAFTA). But I would be shocked if Close doesn't win this. Unfortunate, since McCarthy really should be the winner here. She is a revelation in Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Best Actor
Will Win: Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Could Win: Christian Bale (Vice)
Should Win: Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born) or Christian Bale (Vice)
This is one of the tighter of the acting races and even then it doesn't seem too close. Rami Malek has won Globe, SAG and BAFTA, with Bale also winning a Globe. So really, this seems to be Malek's. Personally, I thought Cooper gave a phenomenal performance in A Star is Born and would've liked to see him win here. Bale was also incredible and would've been a deserving winner. But Rami Malek is not an undeserving winner either. It's a well stacked category.
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Could Win: Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
Should Win: Amy Adams (Vice)
Regina King was snubbed at SAG but did win Globe. But she also lost BAFTA to Rachel Weisz in an upset. So it's hardly a lock, but King should be winning it. But seriously watch out for Weisz to take her second win here. Or even maybe Amy Adams will finally get her due and win here for her stunning performance in Vice.
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Could Win: Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Should Win: Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Ali has been snatching wins left, right and centre. However, he did win just 2 years ago for Moonlight. Will voters think this is too soon? But honestly, odds are he'll take it. He doesn't seem to have much competition. But I have a feeling an upset could happen here.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: BlacKkKlansman
Could Win: Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Should Win: BlacKkKlansman or Can You Ever Forgive Me?
These are my 2 favourite films of the year so either win would be fantastic in my opinion! BlacKkKlansman is expected to win here but Can You Ever Forgive Me? pulled off an upset win at the WGA's so watch out!
Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: The Favourite
Could Win: Green Book
Should Win: First Reformed
The Favourite seems like the type of film that has often been winning in this category in the last few years. And upset winner at the WGA's, Eighth Grade, isn't nominated. The Favourite is tied for most nominations and I think it's most likely to win here. However, if Green Book is winning Best Picture, this will be your first clue if it wins here. However, it really, really should be Paul Shrader's stunning work for First Reformed winning here (as well as Ethan Hawke in Best Actor, but alas...)
Best Cinematography
Will Win: Roma
Could Win: Cold War
Should Win: Roma
Roma was shot by director Alfonso Cuaron. He had hoped to work with frequent collaborator and triple-Oscar winner Emmanuel Lubezki but when he was unavailable, Cuaron shot the film himself. And it turned out so, so beautifully. Watch out for Cold War (another foreign language flick), who won at the American Society of Cinematographers (the SAG of Cinematography awards).
Best Costume Design
Will Win: The Favourite
Could Win: Black Panther
Should Win: Black Panther
This category often loves to award period films and the Favourite does have impeccable costumes. However, Black Panther has stunning costumes and are so diverse in style. But I'm leaning towards the more period film to take it here.
Best Film Editing
Will Win: Vice
Could Win: Bohemian Rhapsody
Should Win: Vice
Honestly, this really should be won by First Man (who isn't even nominated), but whatever. Vice really should be the winner of the nominees. Personally, I found the editing in Bohemian Rhapsody lacking so I'll be disappointed if that wins.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Will Win: Vice
Could Win: Border
Should Win: Vice
Even though it's always just 3 nominees, it always seems to be a random winner (Suicide Squad, A Man Called Ove, etc). So while Vice seems like the most wildly obvious and deserving, I can't help but wonder if Border (a film I hadn't heard of) will take it just because.
Best Production Design
Will Win: Black Panther
Could Win: The Favourite
Should Win: Really, any of the nominees are deserving
Seriously, all of the nominees had wonderful production design and I'd be happy with any. However, I think the level of detail and the merging of African culture and newer sci-fi/superhero designs were really beautiful and well woven together that I think it'll win here. Again, period films often win here but the Academy did also very much like Black Panther and I think this would be a deserving win.
Best Original Score
Will Win: If Beale Street Could Talk
Could Win: Black Panther
Should Win: If Beale Street Could Talk or Black Panther
Honestly, I love both of those scores. Nicolas Britell's work is so, so stunning and beautiful for Beale Street. As well, Ludwig Goransson did incredible work for Black Panther. Either would be deserving wins since, again, First Man was not nominated here.
Best Original Song
Will Win: Shallow (A Star is Born)
Could Win: Seriously, it'll be Shallow
Should Win: Like, for real, Shallow is winning.
Must I say more?
Best Sound Editing
Will Win: A Quiet Place
Could Win: First Man
I'd like to see First Man win but think A Quiet Place is picking it up here.
Best Sound Mixing
Will Win: Bohemian Rhapsody
Could Win: A Star Is Born
This movie frequently goes to musicals and I give Bohemian Rhapsody (a movie with countless, countless concert footage and concert/montage footage) the edge here.
Best Visual Effects
Will Win: Ready Player One
Could Win: Avengers: Infinity War
Should Win: Ready Player One
Fun fact: a superhero film hasn't won this category since Spider-Man 2 in 2004. And as far as my research can show, it's the only that has ever won competitively (Superman won it but it was a "Special Achievement" award so there weren't other nominees). So honestly, I think the curse will continue. I made a very last minute change as I had been predicting First Man for a long time. But I don't know, I just have a feeling about Ready Player One. It's a lot more effects heavy (it's really just the last half hour-40 minutes in space in First Man) and it is a Spielberg pic. So honestly, who knows! The last few years have seemed to have us in for surprises so we'll see!
Best Animated Feature
Will Win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Could Win: Incredibles 2
I honestly haven't seen Spider-Man yet so I can't comment, but this has taken over the internet by storm so I don't see it losing.
Best Documentary
Will Win: Free Solo
Could Win: RBG
From what I've heard it's a pretty close race between these two, and also Minding the Gap. But I think Free Solo takes it?
Best Foreign Language Film
Will Win: Roma
Could Win: Roma
Should Win: Roma
Seriously, it'll be Roma.
Best Animated Short
Will Win: Bao
Could Win: the Weekend
Best Documentary Short
Will Win: Black Sheep
Could Win: Period. End of Sentance
Best Live Action Short
Will Win: Marguerite
Could Win: Skin
