It's that time of year again! It's come up so fast that I feel like I'm almost throwing these together last minute. However, while I haven't kept up with guild awards as much as usual, I've still had a lot of time to ponder who I think will win and the stats into the probability. It's tricky business, sometimes. What felt like it would be an unpredictable year has turned into the only unpredictable category being Best Picture. Director and all 4 acting awards have swept through awards seasons untouched, which is nearly unheard of. So should we expect an upset? Maybe, but I wouldn't count on it. However, Best Picture is a much trickier thing. Basically every movie nominated you can make a case why it won't win. None of these movies have the stats on their side. Whoever wins will be breaking some sort of very strong statistic. The Shape of Water was not nominated for SAG Ensemble (which La La Land didn't receive last year either and didn't end up winning). Three Billboards was snubbed in the Best Director category. Get Out has only 4 nominations and failed to pick up an Editing nomination. Blah, blah, blah. However, since last year happened, I think we know that things can get unpredictable very quickly.
Best Picture
Will Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Could Win: Get Out
Should Win: Lady Bird or Get Out
So I was predicting an upset with Get Out winning here up until today (Thursday). I still think there’s a strong possibility it’ll happen, but I just don’t have any stats or facts to back me up (Moonlight at least won Best drama at the Globes last year and Get Out has no major wins). So I think this is going to go to Three Billboards. It’s also a timely and important film about justice. Especially with #metoo happening, this should prevail over The Shape Of Water which, in the end, is just a love story. However I’d still watch out for Get Out and think that’s the major underdog here.
Best Director
Will Win: Guillermo Del Toro
Could Win: Jordan Peele/Christopher Nolan
Should Win: Greta Gerwig or Jordan Peele or Chris Nolan
And for the 3rd year in a row, and the 5th time so far this decade, I’m predicting Best Picture and Director will be split. Del Toro has swept this season and I don’t see a reason why it won’t at the Oscars as well.
Best Actress
Will Win: Frances McDormand
Could Win: Saoirse Ronan
Should Win: Saoirse Ronan
She's swept all the major awards this season so I don't foresee an upset happening here. Though if it did, I'd love if it were Saoirse Ronan or Margot Robbie
Best Actor
Will Win: Gary Oldman
Could Win: Timothee Chalamet
Should Win: Timothee Chalamet
Timothee Chalamet is only is just 22 years old but gave my favourite male lead performance this year. Combined with an excellent small supporting role in Lady Bird, Chalamet is one to watch out for. However, this doesn't appear to be his year. Gary Oldman has the baity role (along with makeup and transformation that the Academy eats up). However, if there was to be an upset, which I doubt there will be, watch out for young Timothee Chalamet!
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Allison Janney
Could Win: Laurie Metcalf
Should Win: Allison or Laurie
Allison Janney is an acting veteran but somehow this is her very first nomination! How??? Anyway, she's also swept this season and I don't think she'll get upset. Laurie Metcalf was also fab in Lady Bird but Janney was a powerhouse.
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Sam Rockwell
Could Win: Christopher Plummer
Should Win: Sam Rockwell
Could Christopher Plummer, the man who took over Kevin Spacey's role in this film, win an Oscar? Even just so the Academy can stick it to sexual predators? It's entirely possible! However, Sam Rockwell is bound to win here like he (and the other 3 acting winners) has all season.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Call Me By Your Name
Could Win: Logan? mud bound?
Should Win: Call Me By your Name
Honestly, I don't think Call Me By Your Name has a lot of competition here. Logan was a great surprise and it'd be a worthy winner, as would the screenplay for the Disaster Artist, but Call Me By Your Name is up for Best Picture and it's screenplay was beautiful. Expect it to win.
Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: Get Out
Could Win: 3 Billboards or Lady Bird
Should Win: Get Out or Lady Bird
This one is extremely tough and could go a few different ways! Get Out seems the most "original idea" of the screenplays and is excellently written. However, 3 Billboards is a frontrunner and picked up the award at the Globes. Picture and Screenplay often go hand in hand. And if the Shape of Water wins Best Picture, it could upset here. But also don't discount Greta Gerwig's screenplay for Lady Bird. It'd be wonderful to see a female winner here, in a movie directed by and starring women. However, I think Get Out has it but I'm not 100% on that.
Best Cinematography
Will Win: Blade Runner 2049
Could Win: Dunkirk or The Shape of Water
Should Win: Blade Runner 2049
I read an interesting statistic about Best Cinematography. Best Director and Best Cinematography have gone to the same movie the last 5 years in a row, all for large technical films. However, Roger Deakins, the cinematographer for Blade Runner 2049 has 14 nominations and no wins! And this may actually be some of his best work. I've been predicting The Shape of Water for a while now but I think it may just be Deakins year... finally!
Best Costume Design
Will Win: Phantom Thread
Could Win: Beauty and the Beast
Should Win: Phantom Thread
Honestly, is Phantom Thread really about anything other than clothes and costumes? But actually, the clothing is stunning in that film. However, fantasty costume films have done well in the past here so watch out for Beauty and the Beast
Best Editing
Will Win: Baby driver
Could Win: Dunkirk
Should Win: Baby Driver or Dunkirk
It's Baby Driver vs Dunkirk. War movies do excellently in this category (see Hacksaw Ridge winning here last year), however Baby Driver has some excellent sharp editing similar to Whiplash. Dunkirk is the favourite, but Baby Driver did pick up the Editing award at BAFTA, which has predicted the last few editing winners (incuding the slight surprise win for Whiplash). I'm going out on a small limb here and say Baby Driver takes it.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Will Win: Darkest Hour
Could Win: Wonder
Should Win: Any of them? There's only three!
Considering makeup is basically how Gary Oldman is winning an Oscar this year, I say Darkest Hour takes it. Though don't be surprised if Wonder pulls through.
Best Production Design
Will Win: The Shape of Water
Could Win: Blade Runner 2049
Should Win: Blade Runner 2049
The Production design for Blade Runner 2049 was stunning. Please win!!!
Best Original Score
Will Win: Alexandre Desplat (The Shape of Water)
Could Win: Phantom Thread or Dunkirk
Will Win: The Shape of Water
Alexandre Desplat is going to win a second Oscar before Hans Zimmer does? Call him the new master of music! Desplat is one of my favourite composers and while I didn't really like the Shape of Water, his music was sublime for it.
Best Original Song
Will Win: "This Is Me" (The Greatest Showman)
Could Win: "Remember Me" (Coco)
Should Win: Mystery of Love (Call My By Your Name)
Really, as much as I love Mystery of Love, it really should've been Visions of Gideon nominated here. Either way, I'm just so excited Sufjan Stevens is an Oscar nominee! Anyway, you could make a case for literally any of these songs to win. However, The Greatest Showman is a big hit, has massive streaming numbers on Spotify and I think will win. Disney often does well here, but I think this will go to The Greatest Showman.
Best Sound Editing
Will Win: Dunkirk
Could Win: Baby Driver or Dunkirk
Should Win: Dunkirk
Another category where war films do well. And the sound creation (yes, that's what sound editing is, more or less) for this film was really great. But don't count out Baby Driver!
Best Sound Mixing
Will Win: Baby Driver
Could Win: Dunkirk
Should Win: Baby Driver
War movies can also do well here but Chris Nolan (Dunkirk) often gets complaints that his movies are "hard to heard the dialogue" and are very "loud". I don't necessarily disagree. As well, musical often do well here and while Baby Driver isn't a classical musical, it's use of music is well done and I think it could earn it a win here.
Best Visual Effects
Will Win: Blade Runner 2049
Could Win: War For the Planet Of The Apes
Should Win: Apes or Blade Runner 2049
The rebooted Planet of the Apes films have never done well here. They keep getting nominated, are continually the frontrunner, but ultimately don't win, despite how innovative their VFX are! As well, this often goes to more awardsy fair and while Blade Runner wasn't nominated in any top level categories, it's definitely the more prestige of the two (5 nominations vs 1)
Best Animated Feature
Will Win: Coco
Could Win: The Breadwinner
Should Win: The Boss Baby.... JK!!!! It should be Coco
Best Documentary Feature
Will Win: Icarus
Could Win: Faces Places or Last Man In Aleppo
Best Foreign Language Film
Will Win: A Fantastic Woman
Could Win: The Square
Best Animated Short
Will Win: Dear Basketball
Could Win: Garden Party
Best Documentary Short
Will Win: Edith+Eddie
Could Win: Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405
Best Live Action Short
Will Win: DeKalb Elementary
Could Win: The Silent Child
