Oscar Nomination Predictions

Holy shoot, it's that time of year again. How did this happen? This year, Oscar nominations come out the morning of my birthday so I will probably just be spending that day freaking out about the snubs and surprises that are definitely due to come. This year has been unique that frontrunners haven't really emerged in terms of Best Picture yet (the acting categories seem to have solidified themselves barring some huge snubs) so the race is still pretty wide open. I'm predicting 8 nominees for BP but I could see it being only 6, but we could also finally get a full 10 this year as well.

Best Picture 
Lady Bird
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri
Get Out
The Shape of Water
Dunkirk
The Post
Call Me By Your Name
I, Tonya

Best Director 
Greta Gerwig- Lady Bird
Jordan Peele- Get Out
Martin McDonagh- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Christopher Nolan- Dunkirk
Guillermo Del Toro- The Shape of Water

Best Actor
Timothee Chalamet- Call Me By Your Name
Gary Oldman- Darkest Hour
Daniel Kaluuya- Get Out
James Franco- The Disaster Artist
Daniel Day-Lewis- Phantom Thread

Best Actress
Saoirse Ronan- Lady Bird
Frances McDormand- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Sally Hawkins- The Shape of Water
Margot Robbie- I, Tonya
Meryl Streep- The Post

Best Supporting Actor
Sam Rockwell- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Willem Dafoe- The Florida Project
Christopher Plummer- All the Money In The World
Armie Hammer- Call Me By Your Name
Richard Jenkins- The Shape of Water

Best Supporting Actress
Laurie Metcalf- Lady Bird
Allison Janney- I, Tonya
Holly Hunter- The Big Sick
Hong Chau- Downsizing
Octavia Spencer- The Shape of Water

Best Adapted Screenplay
Call Me By Your Name
Molly's Game
The Disaster Artist
Mudbound
Logan

Best Original Screenplay
Get Out
Lady Bird
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
The Shape of Water
The Big Sick

Best Cinematography 
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour

Best Costume Design 
Phantom Thread
Beauty and the Beast
The Shape of Water
Murder on the Orient Express
The Greatest Showman

Best Editing 
Dunkirk
Baby Driver
The Shape of Water
Get Out
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Makeup and Hairstyling 
Darkest Hour
Woner
I, Tonya

Best Original Score
The Shape of Water (Alexandre Desplat)
The Post (John Williams)
Dunkirk (Hans Zimmer)
Phantom Thread (Johnny Greenwood)
Blade Runner 2049 (Hans Zimmer and Benjamin Wallfisch)

Best Original Song
Remember Me (Coco)
The Mystery Of Love (Call Me By Your Name)
This Is Me (The Greatest Showman)
Evermore (Beauty and the Beast)
Prayers for this World (Cries from Syria)

Best Production Design 
The Shape of Water
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
Beauty and the Beast
Murder on the Orient Express

Best Sound Editing 
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
Baby Driver
War For the Planet of the Apes
The Shape of Water

Best Sound Mixing
Blade Runner
Dunkirk
Baby Driver
War For the Planet of the Apes
The Shape of Water

Best Visual Effects
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
War For the Planet of the Apes
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
The Shape of Water

Best Animated Film
Coco
Loving Vincent
The Bread Winner
Ferdinand
In This Corner of the World

Best Foreign Language Film
The Square
In The Fade
Foxtrot
Loveless
A Fantastic Woman

Best Documentary
Icarus
Jane
Faces Places
City of Ghosts
Strong Island

Best Short Subject Documentary
Alone
Ten Meter Tower
Heroin(e)
Edith+Eddie
Heaven Is A Traffic Jam on the 405

Best Animated Short Film
In A Heartbeat
Dear Basketball
Lou
Negative Space
Cradle

Best Live Action Short Film
DeKalb Elementary
Watu Wote/All Of Us
The Silent Child
Icebox
The Eleven O'Clock

Golden Globe Film Predictions

We're already here! The first awards show of the season. And as usual, the Globes are always a really tricky one to predict. They often go their own way in terms of winners (The Revenant over Spotlight, The Social Network over the King's Speech, etc). And this year seems to be especially murky. We don't have clear frontrunners in very many categories at all. The Shape of Water leads nominations, so will it win a bunch of those? Or will Three Billboards or the Post snug some? It's a tough one, but here are my predictions.

Best Picture (Drama)
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Call Me By Your Name
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
The Post

Will Win: The Shape of Water
Could Win: The Post or Three Billboards
Should Win: Dunkirk/3 Billboards

The Shape of Water leads nominations and it seems like the type of film the HFPA would favour. However, I would still watch out for almost any of these films. But especially the Post and Three Billboards. Both have quite timely themes so if the HFPA wanted to go with some sort of narrative, they could with either of those 2.

Best Actor (Drama)
Timothee Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name)
Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
Tom Hanks (The Post)
Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel Esq.)
Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)

Will Win: Gary Oldman
Could Win: Timothee Chalamet
Should Win: ?

I haven't seen any of these movies yet so don't have an opinion on who should win. Gary Oldman seems the likely winner here, playing a beloved historial figure. However, we thought this about Natalie Portman last year and look how that turned out. I'd watch closest for Timothee Chalamet.

Best Actress (Drama)
Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)
Meryl Streep (The Post)
Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Jessica Chastain (Molly's Game)
Michelle Williams (All The Money In The World)

Will Win: Sally Hawkins
Could Win: Frances McDormand
Should Win: ?

So far, I've only see Molly's Game and while I'd be happy if Chastain won, it isn't going to happen. Frances McDormand is probably considered the frontrunner here, but I'm going with Hawkins. Given the amount of nominations, I think the HFPA will really love the Shape of Water.

Best Picture (Comedy/Musical)
Get Out
Lady Bird
I, Tonya
The Disaster Artist
The Greatest Showman

Will Win: Lady Bird
Could Win: Get Out
Should Win: Lady Bird

I loved Get Out, Lady Bird and The Disaster Artist (all in my top 5 films this year so far) but I think this one should be Lady Birds. Directed by a female, written by a female and starring women, I think that narrative alone wins the category. However, this film is GOOD so it's not an unfair win. However, look out for Get Out!

Best Actor (Comedy/Musical)
Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)
James Franco (the Disaster Artist)
Steve Carell (Battle of the Sexes)
Ansel Elgort (Baby Driver)
Hugh Jackman (The Greatest Showman)

Will Win: James Franco
Could Win: Daniel Kaluuya
Should Win: James Franco

Honesty, Daniel Kaluuya (great as he was) feels like a distant second. This should (deservedly) be Francos, no problem.

Best Actress (Comedy Musical)
Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)
Margot Robbie (I, Tonya)
Judi Dench (Victoria & Abdul)
Emma Stone (Battle of the Sexes)
Helen Mirren (The Leisure Seekers)

Will Win: Saoirse Ronan
Could Win: Margot Robbie
Should Win: Saoirse Ronan

I mean, it'd be crazy if Saoirse didn't win, but I could see Margot Robbie winning here. Her film doesn't seem like the Academy's cup of tea, but I could see it going over well here.

Best Supporting Actor
Christopher Plummer (All The Money In The World)
Armie Hammer (Call Me By Your Name)
Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water)
Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)

Will Win: Sam Rockwell
Could Win: Christopher Plummer or Willem Dafoe
Should Win: ?

Word on the street is the HFPA loooves Three Billboards. I was split on predicting Frances McDormand for the Best Actress win but I think this is the easiest way to reward a film they love. However, watch for Willem Dafoe (Oscar frontrunner) or Christopher Plummer (surprise nominee)

Best Supporting Actress
Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
Mary J. Blige (Mudbound)
Hong Chau (Downsizing)
Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)

Will Win: Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
Could Win: Laurie Metcalf
Should Win: Janney or Metcalf

I'm predicting Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress will be split between Lady Bird and I, Tonya. So this could very well be Margot Robbie and Laurie Metcalf winning, but I fee it'll be Saoirse Ronan and Allison Janney. Athough any combination of these ladies would be fantastic wins.

Best Director
Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape of Water)
Steven Spielberg (The Post)
Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Ridley Scott (All the Money In The World)

Will Win: Guillermo Del Toro
Could Win: Christopher Nolan
Should Win: Christopher Nolan

Since Greta Gerwig and Jordan Peele were snubbed, I really, really want Chris Nolan to win here. However, I continue to predict the HFPA going head over heels for the Shape of Water and also awarding it Best Director. However, there have been a lot of split winners in the past years so we'll see!

Best Screenplay
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Molly's Game
The Post
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Will Win: Lady Bird
Could Win: The Shape of Water
Should Win: Lady Bird

Please, PLEASE let Greta Gerwig win a Globe! (And then an Oscar!)

Best Animated Feature
Coco
Loving Vincent
The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Ferdinand

Will Win: Coco
Could Win: Loving Vincent?
Should Win: ?

I was kicking myself the morning nominations came out because I had removed Boss Baby from the predictions the night before. Oh well. This should be Coco's, no problem.

Best Foreign Film
First They Killed My Father
The Square
In the Fade
A Fantastic Woman
Loveless

Will Win: First they Killed My Father
Could Win: The Square

Sadly, I haven't seen any of these but I think they'll award this to Angie's film.

Best Original Score
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Phantom Thread
The Post
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Will Win: Dunkirk
Could Win: The Shape of Water
Should Win: Dunkirk

Hans Zimmer vs. Alexandre Desplat vs John Williams vs Johnny Greenwood vs Carter Burwell. But seriously, Zimmer vs Desplat vs Williams. All master composers. I'm leaning towards Dunkirk for the win but could easily see Desplat taking it for The Shape of Water

Best Original Song
Remember Me (Coco)
This is Me (The Greatest Showman)
Mighty River (Mudbound)
Home (Ferdinand)
The Star (The Star)

Will Win: Remember Me (Coco)
Could Win: This Is Me (The Greatest Showman)

Still not over the egregious snub of Sufjan Stevens for his song Mystery of Love from Call Me By Your Name. Stevens is an all-time favourite artist of mine and I'm still salty he was snubbed here. But really, Coco will probably win but there have been some wild winners over the years.

Molly's Game

Molly's Game, 2017
Directed by Aaron Sorkin

I have to say, I'm a pretty big Sorkin fan. I mean, I still haven't gotten around to seeing The West Wing (I know, I know), but I've been a huge fan of his movies and his TV show The Newsroom. I love the wordiness of his scripts and the intelligence of them. You can tell Sorkin really gets into the subject of his material. And the same is true for his directorial debut, which he also wrote.

Molly's Game is the story of an Olympic class skier turned office assistant/waitress turned runner of high stakes poker games. Molly Bloom is arrested by the FBI several years after she finished running the games and now the government wants her to spill the secrets on the players (who she won't name). Her players included Hollywood A-listers, sports stars, business men and members of the Russian Mob.

I was really eager though a little cautious when I heard Jessica Chastain would be starring in Aaron Sorkin's directorial debut. I mean, if there was anyone who could handle a Sorkin script, it'd be Jessica Chastain. I was just slightly nervous about Sorkin going into directing. I didn't want another Wally Pfister/Transcendence to happen. However, Molly's Game is a well-made, well-written film that is sharp and smart. Jessica Chastain is fierce as Molly Bloom and she was absolutely the right choice for her.

The Story, which is also a true story, is interesting. Details have leaked all over (that Ben Affleck, Tobey Maguire and Alexander Rodrigues were all regulars at her games), however the story kept things a little more anonymous. Somehow, someone thought to cast Michael Cera was one of the films villains (a Hollywood star who gets upset with how Molly runs her games and how large her tips are and threatens to end her), but weirdly I kind of loved it. (Rumor has it his character, which was called "Player X" in the film, is supposed to be based on Tobey Maguire, though Sorkin himself denies this).

This is a film that is very smart and it deserves more recognition than it's getting. Jessica Chastain does some great work here and Idris Elba (playing Molly's attorney) is also solid. However, it seems this film will not get much awards recognition aside from the screenplay category (though Chastain was nominated at the Globes she won't likely be nominated for an Oscar but she's in a close 6th or 7th).

8.5/10

The Disaster Artist

The Disaster Artist, 2017
Directed by James Franco

The Disaster Artist is the true story re-telling of the making of the movie The Room. The Room, since it's release in 2003, has become a cult classic for being an incredibly terrible movie. However, filmmaker Tommy Wiseau (writer, director, star and producer) and his best friend Greg Sestero didn't intend it to be so bad. But the drama behind the scenes makes for a compelling (and hilarious) film.

I'm going to keep this brief and basically just praise James Franco. This is some incredibly immersive work here and I wouldn't even be mad if he won Best Actor. Seriously. Franco as Wiseau is incredible to watch. He's able to embody Wiseau without making it a parody or disrespectful of the man. You can tell he was very passionate about this project and about getting Wiseau right. It's also an incredibly hilarious performance but it's by far his best performance I've seen from him.

The entire film itself walks that fine line of not making this film into a parody. Franco and the screenwriters Scott Neustadter and Michael H Weber balance everything so finely. They allow us to laugh at Wiseau and the drama behind his making of The Room, but not too much. And they leave us able to sympathize for this man and to feel his pain at being ridiculed. We've all been outsiders in our life, and this is the story about an insider trying to become an insider using his own (misguided) means.

The Disaster Artist is an incredibly smart, compelling and hilarious film about a young man wanting to make it in acting and the friend he meets in acting class who has the confidence but lacks the talent and them deciding to fund their own film after years of Hollywood rejection. Tommy is mysterious and has an ego and so the filmmaking experience becomes a nightmare. However, it lead to one of the biggest cult films in history. Definitely go check out this film if you have a chance. You will be astounded at how good James Franco is in this!

9/10